Viewing archive of Tuesday, 14 August 2018

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Aug 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 226 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Aug 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (15 Aug, 16 Aug, 17 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 367 km/s at 13/2102Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (15 Aug, 16 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (17 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Aug to 17 Aug
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Aug 069
  Predicted   15 Aug-17 Aug 069/069/069
  90 Day Mean        14 Aug 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug  006/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Aug  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug  009/012-013/015-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug to 17 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%20%
Minor storm15%15%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm50%50%25%

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