Viewing archive of Monday, 13 August 2018

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Aug 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 225 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Aug 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (14 Aug, 15 Aug, 16 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 442 km/s at 13/1217Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (14 Aug) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (15 Aug, 16 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Aug to 16 Aug
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Aug 068
  Predicted   14 Aug-16 Aug 068/068/068
  90 Day Mean        13 Aug 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Aug  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Aug  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Aug-16 Aug  006/005-009/012-013/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Aug to 16 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%30%35%
Minor storm01%10%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%10%
Minor storm20%25%25%
Major-severe storm10%40%50%

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