Viewing archive of Sunday, 12 August 2018

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Aug 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 224 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Aug 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (13 Aug, 14 Aug, 15 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 429 km/s at 12/2053Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 11/2159Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 12/1732Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (13 Aug) and quiet levels on days two and three (14 Aug, 15 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Aug to 15 Aug
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Aug 068
  Predicted   13 Aug-15 Aug 068/068/068
  90 Day Mean        12 Aug 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Aug  011/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Aug  005/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Aug-15 Aug  007/008-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Aug to 15 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%20%20%
Major-severe storm20%10%10%

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