Viewing archive of Saturday, 21 July 2018
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Jul 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 202 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jul 2018IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (22 Jul, 23 Jul, 24 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 586 km/s at 21/1514Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 21/0649Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
21/0623Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (22 Jul), quiet to active
levels on day two (23 Jul) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three
(24 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jul to 24 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jul 070 Predicted 22 Jul-24 Jul 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 21 Jul 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jul 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jul 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul 007/008-008/010-019/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jul to 24 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 35% | 65% |
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