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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Jul 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 201 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jul 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (21 Jul, 22 Jul, 23 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 482 km/s at 20/0910Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 20/1957Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 20/0849Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (21 Jul, 22 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day three (23 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jul to 23 Jul
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Jul 071
  Predicted   21 Jul-23 Jul 071/071/071
  90 Day Mean        20 Jul 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jul  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Jul  007/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Jul-23 Jul  006/008-008/008-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jul to 23 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%25%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm20%20%35%

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