Viewing archive of Tuesday, 26 June 2018
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Jun 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 177 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jun 2018IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (27 Jun) and
expected to be very low on days two and three (28 Jun, 29 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 649 km/s at 26/2047Z. Total IMF
reached 13 nT at 26/0950Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 26/0940Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 2438 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (27 Jun), quiet to
minor storm levels on day two (28 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day
three (29 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jun to 29 Jun
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jun 071 Predicted 27 Jun-29 Jun 070/070/068 90 Day Mean 26 Jun 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jun 010/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jun 017/021 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jun-29 Jun 014/020-012/015-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jun to 29 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 60% | 50% |
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