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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Jun 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 173 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jun 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Jun, 24 Jun, 25 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 408 km/s at 21/2218Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 22/2042Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 22/1426Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 263 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (23 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (24 Jun, 25 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jun to 25 Jun
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Jun 080
  Predicted   23 Jun-25 Jun 080/080/078
  90 Day Mean        22 Jun 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jun  004/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Jun  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Jun-25 Jun  006/005-008/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jun to 25 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm01%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm20%25%25%
Major-severe storm20%35%25%

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