Viewing archive of Friday, 22 June 2018

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Jun 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 173 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jun 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Jun, 24 Jun, 25 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 408 km/s at 21/2218Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 22/2042Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 22/1426Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 263 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (23 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (24 Jun, 25 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jun to 25 Jun
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Jun 080
  Predicted   23 Jun-25 Jun 080/080/078
  90 Day Mean        22 Jun 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jun  004/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Jun  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Jun-25 Jun  006/005-008/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jun to 25 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%25%20%
Minor storm01%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%25%25%
Major-severe storm20%35%25%

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