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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Mar 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 82 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Mar 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (24 Mar, 25 Mar, 26 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 512 km/s at 23/1550Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 22/2104Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 22/2117Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 11186 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (24 Mar, 25 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (26 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Mar to 26 Mar
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Mar 068
  Predicted   24 Mar-26 Mar 068/068/068
  90 Day Mean        23 Mar 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Mar  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Mar  014/016
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar  017/025-020/025-013/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Mar to 26 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm25%25%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm25%25%30%
Major-severe storm55%55%40%

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