Viewing archive of Tuesday, 27 February 2018

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Feb 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 58 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Feb 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (28 Feb) and expected to be very low on days two and three (01 Mar, 02 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 563 km/s at 27/1531Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 27/1033Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 27/1101Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3341 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (28 Feb), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (01 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (02 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Feb to 02 Mar
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Feb 068
  Predicted    28 Feb-02 Mar 068/068/070
  90 Day Mean        27 Feb 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Feb  006/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Feb  017/020
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 28 Feb-02 Mar  010/014-008/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Feb to 02 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%10%
Minor storm 10%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%15%
Minor storm 30%30%20%
Major-severe storm 30%25%15%

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