Viewing archive of Monday, 26 February 2018

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Feb 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 57 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Feb 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (27 Feb, 28 Feb, 01 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 473 km/s at 26/1401Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 26/0123Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 26/0850Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2177 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (27 Feb), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (28 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (01 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Feb to 01 Mar
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Feb 070
  Predicted    27 Feb-01 Mar 070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        26 Feb 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Feb  002/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Feb  011/012
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 27 Feb-01 Mar  010/014-006/008-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Feb to 01 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%15%
Minor storm 10%05%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%15%
Minor storm 20%25%20%
Major-severe storm 30%20%15%

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