Viewing archive of Sunday, 25 February 2018

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Feb 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 56 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Feb 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (26 Feb, 27 Feb, 28 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 453 km/s at 24/2123Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 25/0726Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 25/1749Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2610 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (26 Feb), unsettled levels on day two (27 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (28 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Feb to 28 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Feb 067
  Predicted   26 Feb-28 Feb 068/068/068
  90 Day Mean        25 Feb 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Feb  006/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Feb  004/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Feb-28 Feb  018/024-011/012-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Feb to 28 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%20%10%
Minor storm25%05%01%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%20%20%
Minor storm20%25%20%
Major-severe storm65%20%10%

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