Viewing archive of Friday, 12 January 2018
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Jan 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 12 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jan 2018IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (13 Jan, 14 Jan, 15 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 392 km/s at 11/2358Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
12/1613Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
12/1028Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (13 Jan, 14 Jan) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (15 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jan to 15 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jan 071 Predicted 13 Jan-15 Jan 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 12 Jan 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jan 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jan 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jan-15 Jan 012/005-010/015-007/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jan to 15 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 30% | 20% |
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