Viewing archive of Saturday, 16 December 2017

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Dec 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 350 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Dec 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (17 Dec, 18 Dec, 19 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 381 km/s at 15/2200Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 192 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (17 Dec) and unsettled to minor storm levels on days two and three (18 Dec, 19 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Dec to 19 Dec
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Dec 071
  Predicted    17 Dec-19 Dec 070/072/072
  90 Day Mean        16 Dec 075

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Dec  003/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Dec  004/004
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec  010/012-019/026-017/022

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Dec to 19 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%40%35%
Minor storm 10%25%20%
Major-severe storm 01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm 30%25%25%
Major-severe storm 35%55%55%

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