Viewing archive of Friday, 15 December 2017

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Dec 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 349 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Dec 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (16 Dec, 17 Dec, 18 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 390 km/s at 14/2104Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 15/1414Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 15/0738Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 276 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (16 Dec), quiet to active levels on day two (17 Dec) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (18 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Dec to 18 Dec
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Dec 072
  Predicted    16 Dec-18 Dec 072/072/074
  90 Day Mean        15 Dec 075

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Dec  002/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Dec  004/005
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec  006/005-010/012-019/026

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Dec to 18 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%25%40%
Minor storm 01%10%25%
Major-severe storm 01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm 15%30%25%
Major-severe storm 10%35%55%

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