Viewing archive of Monday, 4 December 2017

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Dec 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 338 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Dec 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (05 Dec, 06 Dec, 07 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 381 km/s at 04/2020Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 04/1653Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 04/1652Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 175 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (05 Dec), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (06 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (07 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Dec to 07 Dec
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Dec 068
  Predicted   05 Dec-07 Dec 068/068/068
  90 Day Mean        04 Dec 078

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Dec  001/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Dec  012/016
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Dec-07 Dec  026/034-014/018-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Dec to 07 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%25%
Minor storm35%20%10%
Major-severe storm15%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%10%15%
Minor storm20%25%25%
Major-severe storm70%55%35%

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