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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Nov 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Nov 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (10 Nov, 11 Nov, 12 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 623 km/s at 09/0016Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 08/2208Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 09/0550Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 20291 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (10 Nov, 11 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day three (12 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Nov to 12 Nov
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Nov 066
  Predicted   10 Nov-12 Nov 066/066/068
  90 Day Mean        09 Nov 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov  039/047
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Nov  016/022
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov  023/028-017/024-009/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov to 12 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%35%
Minor storm25%25%15%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm50%45%35%

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