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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Oct 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 293 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Oct 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (21 Oct, 22 Oct, 23 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 496 km/s at 19/2100Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 19/2156Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 20/0206Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 851 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (21 Oct, 22 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (23 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Oct to 23 Oct
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Oct 076
  Predicted    21 Oct-23 Oct 078/083/083
  90 Day Mean        20 Oct 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Oct  009/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Oct  007/008
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 21 Oct-23 Oct  008/010-009/010-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Oct to 23 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm 05%05%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 30%30%20%
Major-severe storm 25%25%10%

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