Viewing archive of Friday, 13 October 2017

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Oct 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (14 Oct, 15 Oct, 16 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 691 km/s at 13/1759Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 13/1543Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 13/1514Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4986 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to major storm levels on day one (14 Oct), unsettled to active levels on day two (15 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (16 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Oct to 16 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Oct 070
  Predicted   14 Oct-16 Oct 070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        13 Oct 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct  020/029
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Oct  028/045
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct  022/035-015/020-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct to 16 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%25%
Minor storm40%15%10%
Major-severe storm15%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%10%15%
Minor storm20%25%25%
Major-severe storm75%45%35%

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