Viewing archive of Thursday, 12 October 2017

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Oct 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (13 Oct, 14 Oct, 15 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 596 km/s at 12/1503Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 11/2220Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 11/2255Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2482 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (13 Oct) and unsettled to active levels on days two and three (14 Oct, 15 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Oct to 15 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Oct 070
  Predicted   13 Oct-15 Oct 070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        12 Oct 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct  021/027
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Oct  025/034
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct  024/035-020/025-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct to 15 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm30%20%15%
Major-severe storm15%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%10%10%
Minor storm20%25%25%
Major-severe storm70%55%45%

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