Viewing archive of Tuesday, 10 October 2017

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Oct 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (11 Oct, 12 Oct, 13 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 355 km/s at 10/2016Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 10/2031Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 10/2000Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 534 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels on days one and three (11 Oct, 13 Oct) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (12 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Oct to 13 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Oct 071
  Predicted   11 Oct-13 Oct 071/071/071
  90 Day Mean        10 Oct 083

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct  002/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Oct  006/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct  020/030-023/030-024/035

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct to 13 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%35%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm15%15%15%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm70%70%70%

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