Viewing archive of Monday, 9 October 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Oct 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (10 Oct, 11 Oct, 12 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 437 km/s at 09/0424Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 394 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (10 Oct) and unsettled to
minor storm levels on days two and three (11 Oct, 12 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Oct to 12 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Oct 072 Predicted 10 Oct-12 Oct 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 09 Oct 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Oct 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct 007/008-017/025-023/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct to 12 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 15% | 15% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 65% | 65% |
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