Viewing archive of Saturday, 7 October 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Oct 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Oct 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (08
Oct, 09 Oct, 10 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 467 km/s at 06/2101Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
06/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
07/1434Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 273 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (08 Oct, 09 Oct) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (10 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Oct to 10 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Oct 080 Predicted 08 Oct-10 Oct 078/078/078 90 Day Mean 07 Oct 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Oct 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Oct 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct 006/005-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Oct to 10 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 25% |
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