Viewing archive of Monday, 25 September 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Sep 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 268 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Sep 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (26 Sep,
27 Sep, 28 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 455 km/s at 25/0758Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 24/2216Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
24/2230Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1050 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (26 Sep), quiet to minor storm levels
on day two (27 Sep) and active to major storm levels on day three (28
Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Sep to 28 Sep
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Sep 090 Predicted 26 Sep-28 Sep 095/095/095 90 Day Mean 25 Sep 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Sep 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Sep 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Sep-28 Sep 006/005-016/025-024/032
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Sep to 28 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 30% | 40% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 65% | 80% |
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