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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Sep 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 267 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Sep 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Sep, 26 Sep, 27 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 367 km/s at 23/2120Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 24/1722Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 24/1836Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 12883 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Sep), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (26 Sep) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (27 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Sep to 27 Sep
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Sep 087
  Predicted   25 Sep-27 Sep 090/095/095
  90 Day Mean        24 Sep 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Sep  004/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Sep  006/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep  014/016-008/008-016/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Sep to 27 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%15%35%
Minor storm15%05%30%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%05%
Minor storm25%25%20%
Major-severe storm50%25%65%

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