Viewing archive of Thursday, 14 September 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Sep 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (15 Sep) and
expected to be very low on days two and three (16 Sep, 17 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 677 km/s at 14/1915Z. Total IMF
reached 22 nT at 14/1425Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-19 nT at 14/1418Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 77 pfu at 14/0120Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 957 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (15 Sep), unsettled
to active levels on day two (16 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day
three (17 Sep). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing
threshold on day one (15 Sep) and have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on day two (16 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Sep to 17 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 35% | 10% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Sep 074 Predicted 15 Sep-17 Sep 074/074/074 90 Day Mean 14 Sep 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep 013/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Sep 016/027 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep 022/026-018/020-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep to 17 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 70% | 50% | 40% |
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