Viewing archive of Thursday, 14 September 2017

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Sep 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (15 Sep) and expected to be very low on days two and three (16 Sep, 17 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 677 km/s at 14/1915Z. Total IMF reached 22 nT at 14/1425Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -19 nT at 14/1418Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 77 pfu at 14/0120Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 957 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (15 Sep), unsettled to active levels on day two (16 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day three (17 Sep). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (15 Sep) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (16 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Sep to 17 Sep
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton35%10%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Sep 074
  Predicted   15 Sep-17 Sep 074/074/074
  90 Day Mean        14 Sep 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep  013/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Sep  016/027
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep  022/026-018/020-012/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep to 17 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm40%15%10%
Major-severe storm10%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%10%15%
Minor storm20%25%25%
Major-severe storm70%50%40%

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