Viewing archive of Sunday, 3 September 2017

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Sep 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 02/2203Z from Region 2672 (N08W98). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 Sep, 05 Sep, 06 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 587 km/s at 02/2116Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 02/2212Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 02/2222Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 12319 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (04 Sep, 05 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (06 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Sep to 06 Sep
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Sep 120
  Predicted   04 Sep-06 Sep 120/118/116
  90 Day Mean        03 Sep 078

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep  025/026
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Sep  011/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep  007/010-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep to 06 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm25%20%15%
Major-severe storm25%20%05%

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