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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Sep 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 01/1537Z from Region 2674 (N13E38). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Sep, 03 Sep, 04 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 764 km/s at 01/1349Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 01/0550Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 01/0839Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1768 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (02 Sep, 03 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (04 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Sep to 04 Sep
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Sep 093
  Predicted   02 Sep-04 Sep 094/096/096
  90 Day Mean        01 Sep 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 31 Aug  020/028
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Sep  017/021
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep  015/016-012/012-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep to 04 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%20%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%25%
Major-severe storm20%20%25%

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