Viewing archive of Wednesday, 30 August 2017

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Aug 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 242 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Aug 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 30/1845Z from Region 2674 (N14E64). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (31 Aug, 01 Sep, 02 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 408 km/s at 30/0012Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 29/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 30/0112Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels on days one and two (31 Aug, 01 Sep) and unsettled to active levels on day three (02 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 31 Aug to 02 Sep
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Aug 087
  Predicted   31 Aug-02 Sep 089/091/091
  90 Day Mean        30 Aug 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Aug  010/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Aug  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 31 Aug-02 Sep  021/030-023/035-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Aug to 02 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%30%
Minor storm30%30%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm30%20%20%

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