Viewing archive of Tuesday, 29 August 2017

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Aug 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Aug 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 29/0300Z from Region 2674 (N11E70). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Aug, 31 Aug, 01 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 1127 km/s at 28/2101Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 29/1945Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 29/1826Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1628 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (30 Aug) and active to minor storm levels on days two and three (31 Aug, 01 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Aug to 01 Sep
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Aug 084
  Predicted   30 Aug-01 Sep 084/086/086
  90 Day Mean        29 Aug 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Aug  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Aug  008/011
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep  017/020-024/030-023/035

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Aug to 01 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%35%35%
Minor storm10%30%30%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm20%30%20%

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