Viewing archive of Tuesday, 22 August 2017

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Aug 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 234 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Aug 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 22/1750Z from Region 2671 (N10W31). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Aug, 24 Aug, 25 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 684 km/s at 22/0656Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 22/0149Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 22/0149Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 31128 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (23 Aug), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (24 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (25 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Aug to 25 Aug
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Aug 090
  Predicted   23 Aug-25 Aug 090/090/090
  90 Day Mean        22 Aug 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Aug  013/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Aug  018/023
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug  010/012-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Aug to 25 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%10%10%
Minor storm10%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%15%15%
Major-severe storm40%15%15%

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