Viewing archive of Friday, 18 August 2017

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Aug 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 230 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Aug 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (19 Aug, 20 Aug) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (21 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 685 km/s at 18/0659Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 18/0101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 18/0025Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1170 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (19 Aug, 20 Aug, 21 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Aug to 21 Aug
Class M10%10%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Aug 080
  Predicted   19 Aug-21 Aug 082/084/085
  90 Day Mean        18 Aug 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Aug  020/028
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Aug  016/022
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Aug-21 Aug  015/018-012/015-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Aug to 21 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%15%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm45%40%25%

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