Viewing archive of Tuesday, 15 August 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Aug 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
14/2210Z from Region 2671 (N11E73). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (16 Aug, 17 Aug, 18 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 477 km/s at 15/0052Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1335 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (16 Aug), unsettled to minor
storm levels on day two (17 Aug) and quiet to minor storm levels on day
three (18 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Aug to 18 Aug
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Aug 074 Predicted 16 Aug-18 Aug 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 15 Aug 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Aug 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug 013/016-019/026-016/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug to 18 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 15% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 70% | 65% |
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