Viewing archive of Sunday, 13 August 2017

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Aug 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 225 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Aug 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (14 Aug, 15 Aug, 16 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 771 km/s at 12/2146Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 12/2357Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 13/0537Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 978 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (14 Aug, 16 Aug) and quiet levels on day two (15 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Aug to 16 Aug
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Aug 068
  Predicted   14 Aug-16 Aug 068/068/068
  90 Day Mean        13 Aug 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Aug  012/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Aug  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Aug-16 Aug  009/008-006/005-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Aug to 16 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%20%
Minor storm05%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%20%25%
Major-severe storm25%20%25%

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