Viewing archive of Saturday, 12 August 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Aug 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 224 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Aug 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (13 Aug, 14 Aug, 15 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 736 km/s at 12/1100Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 12/0126Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at
12/0114Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 920 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (13 Aug), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (14 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (15 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Aug to 15 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Aug 070 Predicted 13 Aug-15 Aug 070/068/068 90 Day Mean 12 Aug 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Aug 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Aug 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Aug-15 Aug 010/012-009/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Aug to 15 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 25% | 20% |
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