Viewing archive of Sunday, 16 July 2017

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Jul 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 197 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jul 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 16/0235Z from Region 2665 (S06W70). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (17 Jul, 18 Jul) and likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (19 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 643 km/s at 16/2037Z. Total IMF reached 27 nT at 16/0836Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -23 nT at 16/1040Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4 pfu at 15/2345Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 376 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (17 Jul), quiet to active levels on day two (18 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (19 Jul). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (17 Jul, 18 Jul) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (19 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jul to 19 Jul
Class M30%30%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton30%30%25%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Jul 087
  Predicted   17 Jul-19 Jul 085/080/074
  90 Day Mean        16 Jul 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jul  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Jul  027/043
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul  020/030-011/012-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jul to 19 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%35%20%
Minor storm35%15%05%
Major-severe storm20%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%10%15%
Minor storm15%30%25%
Major-severe storm80%50%30%

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