Viewing archive of Sunday, 16 July 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Jul 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 197 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jul 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
16/0235Z from Region 2665 (S06W70). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (17 Jul, 18 Jul) and
likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (19 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 643 km/s at 16/2037Z. Total IMF
reached 27 nT at 16/0836Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-23 nT at 16/1040Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 4 pfu at 15/2345Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 376 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (17 Jul), quiet to
active levels on day two (18 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (19 Jul). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one
and two (17 Jul, 18 Jul) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day
three (19 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jul to 19 Jul
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jul 087 Predicted 17 Jul-19 Jul 085/080/074 90 Day Mean 16 Jul 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jul 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jul 027/043 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul 020/030-011/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jul to 19 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 80% | 50% | 30% |
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