Viewing archive of Saturday, 15 July 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Jul 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jul 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
15/1936Z from Region 2665 (S05W57). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Jul, 17 Jul,
18 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 372 km/s at 14/2231Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 22 pfu at 14/2320Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 723 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (16 Jul), active to
major storm levels on day two (17 Jul) and unsettled to active levels on
day three (18 Jul). Protons are likely to cross threshold on day one (16
Jul) and have a chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (17
Jul, 18 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jul to 18 Jul
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 55% | 30% | 30% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jul 092 Predicted 16 Jul-18 Jul 092/092/090 90 Day Mean 15 Jul 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jul 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jul 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jul-18 Jul 019/035-028/045-014/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jul to 18 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 35% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 25% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 75% | 79% | 50% |
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