Viewing archive of Friday, 14 July 2017

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Jul 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jul 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 14/0209Z from Region 2665 (S06W43). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Jul, 16 Jul, 17 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 391 km/s at 13/2148Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 14/1630Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 14/0215Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 13 pfu at 14/1055Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 942 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Jul), quiet to major storm levels on day two (16 Jul) and active to major storm levels on day three (17 Jul). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (15 Jul), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (16 Jul) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (17 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jul to 17 Jul
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton75%50%30%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Jul 094
  Predicted   15 Jul-17 Jul 092/092/092
  90 Day Mean        14 Jul 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jul  005/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Jul  003/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul  014/015-019/035-028/045

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul to 17 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%25%
Minor storm15%35%35%
Major-severe storm01%20%25%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%05%05%
Minor storm30%20%15%
Major-severe storm50%75%79%

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