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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Jun 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 171 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jun 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (21 Jun, 22 Jun, 23 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 466 km/s at 20/1117Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2428 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (21 Jun), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (22 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day three (23 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jun to 23 Jun
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Jun 074
  Predicted   21 Jun-23 Jun 075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        20 Jun 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jun  007/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Jun  004/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Jun-23 Jun  005/005-006/008-008/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jun to 23 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%10%20%
Minor storm01%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%20%20%
Major-severe storm10%15%20%

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