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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Jun 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 170 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jun 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 Jun, 21 Jun, 22 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 589 km/s at 19/0247Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 19/0239Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 18/2240Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2734 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (20 Jun, 21 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (22 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jun to 22 Jun
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Jun 074
  Predicted   20 Jun-22 Jun 075/075/072
  90 Day Mean        19 Jun 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jun  009/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Jun  007/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun  005/005-005/005-006/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jun to 22 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm15%15%20%
Major-severe storm05%10%15%

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