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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Jun 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 169 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jun 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (19 Jun, 20 Jun, 21 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 640 km/s at 18/0815Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 18/0218Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 18/0129Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 808 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (19 Jun) and quiet levels on days two and three (20 Jun, 21 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jun to 21 Jun
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Jun 075
  Predicted   19 Jun-21 Jun 075/075/074
  90 Day Mean        18 Jun 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jun  012/017
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Jun  010/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Jun-21 Jun  010/010-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jun to 21 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%05%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm20%15%10%

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