Viewing archive of Friday, 16 June 2017

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Jun 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 167 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jun 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Jun, 18 Jun, 19 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 630 km/s at 16/1852Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 16/1009Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 16/0740Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (17 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (18 Jun, 19 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jun to 19 Jun
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Jun 074
  Predicted   17 Jun-19 Jun 074/074/074
  90 Day Mean        16 Jun 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jun  005/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Jun  017/023
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Jun-19 Jun  011/012-011/010-009/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jun to 19 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%15%10%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm15%05%10%

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