Viewing archive of Thursday, 15 June 2017

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Jun 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 166 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jun 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Jun, 17 Jun, 18 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 495 km/s at 15/0152Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 14/2316Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 15/1218Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 113 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (16 Jun), quiet to active levels on day two (17 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (18 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jun to 18 Jun
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Jun 077
  Predicted   16 Jun-18 Jun 077/077/077
  90 Day Mean        15 Jun 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Jun  012/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun  017/025-011/012-011/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun to 18 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%25%15%
Minor storm15%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%15%15%
Major-severe storm20%15%05%

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