Viewing archive of Wednesday, 14 June 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Jun 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jun 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (15 Jun, 16 Jun, 17 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 534 km/s at 14/0236Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
14/1915Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
14/0401Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Jun) and unsettled to
active levels on days two and three (16 Jun, 17 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jun to 17 Jun
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jun 074 Predicted 15 Jun-17 Jun 074/074/074 90 Day Mean 14 Jun 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jun 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jun 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun 012/015-015/025-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jun to 17 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 20% | 15% |
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