Viewing archive of Wednesday, 14 June 2017

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Jun 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jun 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (15 Jun, 16 Jun, 17 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 534 km/s at 14/0236Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 14/1915Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 14/0401Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Jun) and unsettled to active levels on days two and three (16 Jun, 17 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jun to 17 Jun
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Jun 074
  Predicted    15 Jun-17 Jun 074/074/074
  90 Day Mean        14 Jun 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jun  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Jun  005/006
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun  012/015-015/025-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jun to 17 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%35%25%
Minor storm 10%15%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 25%20%15%
Major-severe storm 40%20%15%

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