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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 May 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 142 Issued at 2200Z on 22 May 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 May, 24 May, 25 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 619 km/s at 22/1940Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 22/0736Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 22/1634Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 26098 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (23 May, 24 May) and quiet levels on day three (25 May).
III. Event Probabilities 23 May to 25 May
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 May 074
  Predicted   23 May-25 May 075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        22 May 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 May  010/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 May  007/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 May-25 May  007/008-007/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 May to 25 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%05%10%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%15%15%
Major-severe storm20%05%10%

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