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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 May 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 141 Issued at 2200Z on 21 May 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (22 May, 23 May, 24 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 716 km/s at 21/1048Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 21/0507Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 21/0436Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 13008 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (22 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (23 May, 24 May).
III. Event Probabilities 22 May to 24 May
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 May 074
  Predicted   22 May-24 May 074/076/076
  90 Day Mean        21 May 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 May  023/023
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 May  010/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 May-24 May  011/012-007/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 May to 24 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%10%05%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%10%05%

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