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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 May 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 140 Issued at 2200Z on 20 May 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (21 May, 22 May, 23 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 749 km/s at 20/1206Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 20/0830Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 20/0631Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1445 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (21 May, 22 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (23 May).
III. Event Probabilities 21 May to 23 May
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 May 072
  Predicted   21 May-23 May 072/074/074
  90 Day Mean        20 May 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 May  013/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 May  020/026
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 May-23 May  016/020-011/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 May to 23 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%10%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm10%05%10%

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