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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 May 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 139 Issued at 2200Z on 19 May 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 May, 21 May, 22 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 603 km/s at 19/2100Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 19/0336Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 19/1814Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 329 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (20 May) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (21 May, 22 May).
III. Event Probabilities 20 May to 22 May
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 May 072
  Predicted    20 May-22 May 072/072/074
  90 Day Mean        19 May 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 May  015/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 May  015/022
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May  024/030-016/020-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 May to 22 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%20%20%
Minor storm 20%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 20%15%15%
Major-severe storm 15%10%05%

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