Viewing archive of Thursday, 18 May 2017

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 May 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 138 Issued at 2200Z on 18 May 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (19 May, 20 May, 21 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 458 km/s at 17/2148Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 18/1717Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 18/0338Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 149 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to major storm levels on day one (19 May), active to minor storm levels on day two (20 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (21 May).
III. Event Probabilities 19 May to 21 May
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 May 072
  Predicted   19 May-21 May 072/072/072
  90 Day Mean        18 May 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 May  009/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 May  013/018
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 May-21 May  031/045-024/030-016/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 May to 21 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%40%20%
Minor storm35%20%05%
Major-severe storm15%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm20%15%10%

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

100%

Space weather facts

Last X-flare:2017/09/10X8.2
Last M-flare:2017/10/20M1.0
Last geomagnetic storm:2019/10/26Kp5 (G1)
Number of spotless days in 2019:269
Current stretch spotless days:42

This day in history*

Solar flares
12006X1.5
22001M4.4
32001M3.5
42014M1.6
52014C8.6
ApG
1200647G4
2200327G1
3201520G1
4201016
5201314
*since 1994

Social networks