Viewing archive of Wednesday, 3 May 2017

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 May 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 03 May 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 May, 05 May, 06 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 444 km/s at 03/0004Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7831 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (05 May, 06 May).
III. Event Probabilities 04 May to 06 May
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 May 075
  Predicted   04 May-06 May 075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        03 May 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 May  004/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 May  009/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May  011/012-008/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 May to 06 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%15%15%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%20%20%
Major-severe storm40%20%20%

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