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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Apr 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 115 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Apr 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (26 Apr, 27 Apr, 28 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 714 km/s at 25/0153Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 25/1820Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 25/1113Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 52302 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (26 Apr), quiet to active levels on day two (27 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (28 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Apr to 28 Apr
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Apr 081
  Predicted   26 Apr-28 Apr 081/081/082
  90 Day Mean        25 Apr 078

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Apr  019/022
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Apr  015/016
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Apr-28 Apr  013/016-013/014-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Apr to 28 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%30%30%
Minor storm25%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm25%30%30%
Major-severe storm60%35%35%

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